In January 2026, Amsterdam’s VAT rate for overnight accommodation is expected to increase from 9% to 21%, affecting a range of lodging options from hotels to B&Bs to short-term rentals. Heading into a year of change, hotel performance in the market has left something to be desired.
Amsterdam’s hotel industry has underperformed through the first seven months of 2025, with three quarters of properties having dropped average daily rate (ADR) each month over the past year.
Typically, low performance like this would usually be driven by a recession, geopolitical conflict, etc., but none of those scenarios are applicable to Amsterdam right now. The trend is widespread too, as opposed to a case of one or two submarkets dragging down the market average.
Amsterdam’s Airport submarket has been a clear underdog, but from a rate perspective, hotels in or near the city centre are losing the most.
While overall performance hasn’t been stellar, there is some good news. Amsterdam has been a standout market in Europe when it comes to group demand – and this segment’s room rates are actually rising.
But, a reminder, groups represent a smaller portion of demand and really only impact midweek performance. There’s a solid limit on how much group ADR growth can move market rates.
This all makes for an interesting lead up to 2026, because typically, a year plus of declines would result in a decent rebound year. However, the VAT increase will significantly limit hotels’ pricing power and disproportionately affect leisure travelers.
As a result, ADR declines are expected to be concentrated over summer months. Additionally, 2026 is shaping up to be a quieter year for groups, further pressuring room rates as 2025 events are not offset.
Next year will be yet another challenging year for Amsterdam hotels, with RevPAR expected to decline for the third consecutive year. The outlook for 2027, however, is brighter, with both occupancy and ADR growth set to return.