Early Easter pushes spring break peak forward a week in 2024

Analysis by Brannan Doyle

Spring break season is officially here, and tracking school calendar data becomes critical during this time in order to predict travel demand across the U.S. The swings in academic calendar patterns from year to year can generate substantial waves in hotel performance, as vacation scheduling directly impacts over 50 million public K-12 students and their families across the country.

Starting Saturday, 9 March, spring break 2024 kicked into high gear for U.S. school districts. From the aforementioned date through Thursday, 14 March, over a quarter of all K-12 students will be on spring break and available to travel. On Friday, 15 March, this will increase to over 30% of students on break. On the subsequent Saturday and Sunday, this percentage will reach nearly 40% nationwide — the first major peak of the spring break season.

Vacations will taper off the following week, and the percent of students on break hover between 13% and 16% from Monday, 18 March through Friday 22, March. Up to this point, vacation patterns very closely mirror those seen in the spring of 2023

This lull in travel availability is merely the eye of the storm, however, because the following week will see substantial surges — even on a year-over-year basis. On the weekend of 23-24 March, the sum of students on break will surpass 40% again, exceeding the previous weekend and nearly doubling the availability of student travel from the matching period of 2023. This trend continues through the week of Monday, 25 March, as an average of 30% of students will be on break until the Friday leading into Easter weekend.

On Good Friday, travel availability surges to 57%, nearly quadrupling from the corresponding date in 2023. On Saturday and Easter Sunday, the percent of students on break reaches an incredible high of 70% — especially noteworthy considering that the peak of student vacations never surpassed 60% during the spring break period in 2023.

With a 25ppt premium (54.5% in 2024 versus 29.6% in 2023), Monday, 1 April, is the last day of this year’s spring break period that will see a significant boost of travel availability year over year.

As shown in the data, many public school districts plan their holiday around the Easter calendar — so it must be noted that after Easter 2024 there will then be an equalization period where vacations scheduled in 2024 are substantially below the matching dates of 2023.

This period begins in the middle of the week following Easter and will be especially pronounced during the weekend that corresponds to last year’s Easter break period (Friday, 5 April through Monday, 8 April of this year). Eventually by mid-April, the spring break period will slow to a halt as students return to school to finish out their academic year.

It’s also worth noting, of course, that higher travel availability around a holiday weekend does not necessarily equate to higher returns for the travel industry, as many choose to stay close to home to spend time with family. Historically (since 2015), U.S. RevPAR tends to drop slightly for Friday and Saturday nights on Easter weekend when compared to other spring break weekends in April and March.

The shifts in both travel availability and consumer behavior around the Easter holiday do not spell disaster for those in the travel industry — in fact, for many it may translate to boosts in demand, particularly when comparing year-over-year. But either way, it does necessitate extra vigilance in keeping up with academic calendar trends to help understand and plan for those displacements in demand. Certain regions of the U.S. tend to adhere more closely to Easter for scheduling spring break, while other feeder markets may follow different patterns in determining student vacation scheduling.

Adjustments to summer break scheduling may also impact travel availability as we look ahead to May and June of this year. Learn more about how our School Break Report can help unveil complicated calendar patterns for the remainder of this academic year.