Analysis by Hannah Smith
Amid ongoing macroeconomic pressures, waning consumer confidence, and shorter booking windows, hotel performance for the upcoming Fourth of July holiday is drawing more scrutiny than in past years. Industry analysts are watching closely to gauge how well the sector navigates this important summer leisure travel period. Fortunately, our forward-looking data offers encouraging signs and reasons for optimism.
Shorter booking windows
Recent Forward STAR data reinforces what we've been hearing consistently from clients: booking windows have shortened, largely due to ongoing economic uncertainty.
The coming weeks in June highlight that trend, as occupancy on the books continues to move higher than last year as we get closer to stay dates. For example, as of 12 May, the week ending June 28 was running about 1 percentage point behind the same time last year in the Top 25 Markets. As we’ve gotten closer to the end of June, that variance has improved, and occupancy on the books is now more than 1% ahead of this time last year.
Similar 4th of July holiday ahead?
Occupancy on the books for the holiday week has been pacing almost 1% ahead of last year since 28 April, with some acceleration over the past two weeks.
Remember, however, that the 4th of July fell on a Thursday last year, which meant occupancy was more muted. Further, the week of the 4th of July last year produced the lowest weekly occupancy level (64%) of the summer in the Top 25 Markets, sitting at 59% on week nights (Sunday-Thursday) and 76% on the weekend (Friday-Saturday). Only Labor Day week posted a lower occupancy between March and November last year.
Forward STAR data for 2025 shows occupancy on the books for the holiday weekend trending similar to last year. However, the full week (29 June-5 July) is trending slightly above the holiday week last year.
Most of the growth is coming at the start of the week, with occupancy on the books up 6% for Sunday night, 4% for Monday night, and 3% for Tuesday night. This occupancy premium over last year has been increasing as we get closer to the holiday, driving the acceleration for the week as a whole.
With the 4th of July falling on a Friday this year, the start of the week may be more open for business travel, pushing higher occupancies on the books for Sunday through Tuesday. We are not seeing this same trend across the following two weeks (6-12 July and 13-19 July), as weekend occupancy is trending stronger versus last year than weekday.
A few markets will also receive a lift from later-round matches in the FIFA Club World Cup at end of June and beginning of July.
We will release full analysis of the actualized results from the holiday on Friday, 11 July.