STR Weekly Insights: 2-8 February 2025

Analysis by Isaac Collazo

All financial figures in constant U.S. dollar. 

Highlights

• New Orleans Super Bowl week ADR topped Vegas, but market dynamics provide important context 
• U.S. RevPAR grew when removing Super Bowl comps 
• Wildfire impact beginning to wane around Los Angeles 
• Highest global occupancy thus far in 2025
• China, with the New Year holiday, boosted global demand
• U.K. performance down due to an event calendar shift

RevPAR growth? Depends on your lens.

In the week ending 8 February 2025, U.S. hotel industry revenue per available room (RevPAR) decreased if you factor Super Bowl comparisons. If you exclude the impacts of the annual mega event, RevPAR grew. While that might sound counterintuitive, remember last year’s oversized impact on performance.  

In 2024, the Super Bowl was in Las Vegas, the nation’s largest hotel market. During the comparable week, average daily rate (ADR) topped $406 and made up 10% of room revenue across the U.S. 

This year’s Super Bowl host, New Orleans, is the nation’s 33rd largest STR-defined market. NOLA’s Super Bowl week ADR ($486) was higher than Las Vegas, but its contribution to total U.S. room revenue was only 3%. 

That difference is why U.S. weekly RevPAR was down 2.7% for the week as occupancy dropped 0.5 percentage points (ppts) and ADR decreased 2.2%. Removing both Las Vegas and New Orleans, the rest of the country showed moderate RevPAR growth (+2.2%). 

Note: For the rest of this analysis, we’ll exclude Las Vegas and New Orleans unless otherwise noted. That will provide a clearer view of changes in the remainder of the country.

Top 25 and Hurricane markets leading RevPAR growth

U.S. occupancy was flat to last year (55.5%) and down slightly from the week prior (55.8%). ADR lost momentum, rising 2.1% year over year versus more than 3% gains in the previous two weeks. The slowdown in ADR growth was centered on weekdays (Monday-Wednesday), when the measure was half of what it was a week earlier (+2.6% vs. +5%). Weekday occupancy gains were also more tempered. Even with the lower increase, weekday RevPAR growth was the highest of the week (+2.9%), followed by shoulder days (Sunday & Thursday) at +2.6%. Weekend (Friday & Saturday) RevPAR came in at +0.8%.

The slower growth was seen in both the Top 25 Markets as well as all others. In the Top 25, Tampa saw the largest RevPAR change (+21.1%) with Washington, D.C. (+12.1%) a distant second followed by Orlando (+8.9%). Los Angeles and Seattle also saw strong RevPAR growth (7%+). 

On the flip side, six markets saw RevPAR decline, including Denver (-13.5%) and Nashville (-13.1%). Other Top 25 markets seeing a reverse in RevPAR included Atlanta, Oahu, Phoenix and St. Louis. 

New York City also had an off week as RevPAR advanced by only 1.3% due to a weekend decrease (-7.2%). New York’s weekday RevPAR was up 6.4%.

In the non-Top 25 Markets, RevPAR growth was led by many of the 13 markets impacted by Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton. North Carolina West posted the nation’s largest RevPAR gain (+54.6%) followed by Augusta (+40.7%). Collectively, the 13 markets saw RevPAR rise 15.9%, which was nearly identical to the previous week’s growth. Occupancy gains (+5.9ppts) continued to drive the increases in most of these markets. 

Tucson, not included in that group of 13 hurricane markets, recorded the third highest RevPAR gain in the country (+34.9%) Overall, RevPAR in the non-Top 25 Markets was up 1.7% as compared to +2.8% for the Top 25 Markets. Excluding the hurricane markets, non-Top 25 RevPAR was nearly flat (+0.7%) because falling occupancy

Los Angeles occupancy elevated but slowing

In the greater Los Angeles area (STR-defined markets: Los Angeles, Inland Empire, California Central Coast, and Orange County), RevPAR increased 5.2% all on occupancy gains. Collectively and over the past five weeks, RevPAR in the area has increased 6.6% on occupancy as ADR is up only 0.8%. 

Since massive wildfires began in the region, four submarkets have seen large increases in occupancy: Pasadena/Glendale/Burbank (+20.9ppts), Los Angeles East (+15.5ppts), Los Angeles North (+11.6ppts) and Oxnard/Ventura (+9.1). 

In the most recent week, these four submarkets saw occupancy advance collectively by 11.6ppts, which was less than the previous four weeks where the measure was up by more than 14ppts. 

Hollywood/Beverly Hills continued to see occupancy fall (-4.9ppts), but that was the smallest decline since the week ending 11 January.

Not much movement in group

Among luxury and upper upscale hotels, group occupancy was up slightly (+0.5ppts) with mostly flat ADR (+0.6%). Weekend group showed the largest occupancy gain (+1.1ppts) but with falling ADR (-1.3%). 

New Orleans scores big, Las Vegas percentage changes obviously retreat

Bringing the 2024 and 2025 Super Bowls back into the equation, RevPAR in Las Vegas dropped 62.5% on a 54.9% decrease in ADR. New Orleans’ RevPAR was up 135% on a 107% ADR increase.

Absolute ADR in NOLA reached US$486, which was ahead of what Las Vegas recorded last year ($406). Keep in mind, however, that Las Vegas hotel supply is 4.6 times larger than New Orleans and more importantly, there are 10 times more Luxury class rooms in Las Vegas. Thus, when it comes to ADR, we believe New Orleans saw compression that was not as prevalent in Las Vegas given market size. In addition, Las Vegas, given its casinos, is more like to comp rooms for high rollers, which is less likely in New Orleans. 

NOLA’S Friday/Saturday RevPAR was up 156% on 142% ADR gain. Absolute ADR topped US$807 with occupancy at 92.9%. In the New Orleans CBD/French Quarter submarket, ADR was just shy of US$1,000 with occupancy of 97.4%. More than 10% of reporting hotels in the submarket had ADR above US$1000 over the weekend with nearly half above US$500. Results for Super Bowl Sunday will be reported next week.

China pushes global demand upwards

Global demand, excluding the U.S., jumped 10% and pushed occupancy to 62.1%, which was the highest level of the year so far. ADR increased 2.4% with RevPAR up 11.1%. 

The large jump in demand was a result of China, where the measure increased 38% and accounted for most of the rooms growth globally. The driver was Chinese New Year, which began 29 January and concluded 12 February. 

Other countries seeing demand growth included Germany, Vietnam, Brazil, and France. Nearly two-thirds of the countries tracked on weekly basis, saw demand growth. 

Among the top 10 largest countries, based on supply, demand was up 14.1% because of China. Excluding China, demand was up 1.1% despite strong growth in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain. The reason for the lower demand growth in the group was a steep decrease in Indonesia 
(-8.7%) as well as declines in the Canda, Mexico, and the United Kingdom. The U.K. decrease was due to a shift in a major gaming conference. 

RevPAR percentage changes in the top 10 countries ranged from +25.2% in China to -10.5% in the United Kingdom. Seven of the 10 countries saw double-digit growth this week. 

Holiday spots saw mixed results with both Australia/Oceania and the Caribbean reporting flat to down RevPAR. The Middle East was also down due to decreases in Saudi Arabia. The United Arab Emirates was up 4.4%. 

Another choppy week expected

Next week’s U.S. results will again be choppy due to the inclusion of Super Bowl Sunday and the shift from Las Vegas to New Orleans. Additionally, New Orleans will have difficult comps due to last year’s Mardi Gras when Fat Tuesday fell on 13 February 2024. Given those factors, the week will likely be flat to down again. 

The rest of the world will also see difficult comps given that Chinese New Year was a week later last year. The negative impact will last through the week ending 22 February.