STR Weekly Insights: 29 June – 5 July 2025

Analysis by Isaac Collazo, Chris Klauda

All financial figures in U.S. dollar constant currency. 

Highlights

• Strong start, weak finish impacted by holiday calendar shift
• July 4 demand was healthy
• Las Vegas pulled down overall U.S. results
• Group demand growth provided a silver lining to a flat week
• Long live rock and roll in the U.K.
   

Friday holiday created day-of-week shifts

As expected, based on historical trends and forward-looking data, a Friday Fourth of July (compared to Thursday last year) gave business travelers extra time to squeeze in trips early in the week. That created strong year-over-year (YoY) gains across the top-line metrics from Sunday through Tuesday, with RevPAR up 6.6% on both occupancy (+2.6ppts) and average daily rate (+1.8%). 

The rest of the week was a mixed bag with Wednesday and Thursday RevPAR dropping the most, -5.8% and -15.0%, respectively. Friday was up slightly, while Saturday decreased 2.7%.

Overall for the week, RevPAR declined 1.3% on a 0.9% decrease in ADR and a 0.2ppt drop in occupancy. 

Record-high July 4 room demand

Looking back on July 4 performance over the years, room demand for the holiday week was comparable to the previous two years. For the Fourth of July itself, room demand was the highest ever. Supply was also the highest ever, which resulted in occupancy being the fifth highest over the past 26 years. CLICK HERE for a more in-depth Fourth of July analysis. 

Las Vegas performance pulled down national results again

Market results varied considerably. Las Vegas reported another down week with RevPAR retreating 28.7%, due to falling ADR (-14.3%) and occupancy (-13.4 ppts). Because of the size of Las Vegas (3% of U.S. hotel room supply), a significant change in the market’s performance impacts national averages. The past year has been challenging for Las Vegas due to softening economic conditions and the drop in international arrivals. International inbound travel to Las Vegas has declined every month this year, except January, according to U.S. international air travel statistics (APIS I-92 Data). June showed the largest decline with international arrivals down 13.2%. 

Excluding Las Vegas, U.S. RevPAR was flat (-0.1%) with ADR down slightly and occupancy up slightly.

Flat performance across large, medium and small markets

Performance was generally flat across the country. In the Top 25 (T25) Markets (excluding Las Vegas), RevPAR was down 0.2%. We also saw little movement in non-T25 metro markets (+0.4%) and non-metro/rural markets (-0.2%). 

There were standouts in each market type, however. St. Louis (+38.4%) topped the T25 due to healthy gains all week, including during the 62nd General Conference Session of the Seventh-day Adventist Church. St. Louis has posted RevPAR gains for the past 11 weeks. 

Dallas, San Diego and Washington also posted double-digit RevPAR growth this week with all gains occurring at the start of the week.

Birmingham and Milwaukee posted the top results in non-T25 metro areas. Birmingham hosted the 2025 World Police and Fire Games, an international biennial event. Milwaukee hosted the 2025 USA Fencing Summer Nationals & July Challenge, the world’s largest fencing tournament.

In the non-metro/rural markets, Louisiana North (includes Shreveport) earned top honors. Both Shreveport and the surrounding northern Louisiana area recorded gains all week.

Chain scale results also flat with varied impacts from occupancy and ADR

Luxury chain hotels posted their first weekly RevPAR decline in 16 weeks, albeit modest at -0.4%. The next three chain scales posted modest increases, all occupancy-driven. The remaining chain scales saw RevPAR decrease with Midscale’s decline due to falling ADR and Economy’s a combination of both occupancy and ADR. 

All chain scales, except Economy, started the week positive with the greatest gains in the top four chain scales. All chain scales retreated at the end of the week. 

Group demand was not flat

While the week of Independence Day is generally a slow week for groups, the segment saw double-digit gains in room demand (+11.5%) among Luxury and Upper Upscale hotels. Sunday through Wednesday drove the gains (+31.1%). Thursday through Saturday saw group demand fall 8.3%. 

Transient demand dropped 2.5% with Sunday through Wednesday down slightly (-0.7%) and Thursday through Saturday down 4.2%.

Rock and roll lifted the U.K.

Japan continued to hold the top RevPAR spot across the largest supply countries, up 23.8% in the most recent week. 

The U.K. (+8.0%) saw growth in the measure for the first time since early-May. The majority (80%) of the 41 markets in the country posted positive RevPAR percentage changes. Cardiff, Wales hosted Oasis for two nights, which contributed to a 94.9% increase in weekly RevPAR. Birmingham, England hosted Black Sabbath and Ozzy Osbourne’s last-ever show, driving a 58% increase in weekly RevPAR.

Only three of the 11 highest supply countries (China, Germany, and France) saw RevPAR decline for the week. Germany was down due a difficult comparison to last year’s EURO 2024. France’s and China’s decreases were broad based with nearly all markets in both countries seeing RevPAR decreases. Hong Kong and Paris were the exceptions with both seeing strong growth.

Looking ahead

U.S. room demand is somewhat stagnant, and we expect summer to be topsy-turvy. TSA passenger screenings were up 1.2% over the past week. International travel to the U.S. for June was down 6.6%, while Americans leaving the country slowed (+0.2%) compared to May when the measure increased 1.7%. 

The value of the U.S. dollar today compared to last July has declined more than 10%, which could encourage Americans to stay home while attracting international visitors.

That is all to say there are a lot of factors playing in the travel landscape which could help or hinder the summer season. As seen last week, concerts can have a significant impact on market performance. Live Nation Entertainment company chief, Michael Rapino, recently declared that 2025 would be a “monster stadium year.”

With summer not yet to the midway point, and the strong performance due to concerts already experienced, it’s reasonable to expect stadium concerts to continue to lift hotel performance in select markets around the globe.

As we have said in recent forecast revisions, event impacts will still be there, but they will be more isolated.