STR Weekly Insights: 5-11 October 2025

Analysis by Isaac Collazo

All financial figures in U.S. dollar constant currency. 

Highlights

• U.S. ADR grew at the rate of inflation for a second consecutive week
• First positive U.S. RevPAR comp since the end of August
• Growth centered in Top 25 Markets from Wednesday onwards
• College football lifted many smaller markets
• Weekend lifted by easy comp (Yom Kippur) and start of fall break
• Highest global RevPAR gain since the end of Q1

ADR surges from Tuesday onwards

For the second consecutive week, average daily rate (ADR) rose at the rate of inflation, up 2.6% for the period ending 11 October 2025. As a result, U.S. revenue per available room (RevPAR) rose 0.6%, marking the industry’s first weekly increase since the end of August. Occupancy, however, fell for a 16th straight week, with the most recent decline (-1.4 percentage points) half of what had been seen in the previous fortnight (~2.5ppts).

The ADR gain was a surprise given the average increase of +0.2% in the previous 21 weeks (ending 27 September). Also, unlike the previous week when the measure rose 2.7% due to a large conference in Las Vegas, the result was widespread. The Top 25 Markets increased 2.8%, despite a loss in Las Vegas, and the remainder of the country was up 2.4%. 

Like the previous week, we could categorize the ADR gain as an outlier. The measure rose a mere 0.8% from Sunday to Tuesday. On Wednesday and Thursday, ADR was up 2.8% on a 4.1% increase in the Top 25 Markets. The weekend (Friday & Saturday) saw ADR surge to 4.0% due to a 4.1% gain in non-Top 25 Markets, while the Top 25 saw a 3.8% advancement. 

Weekend RevPAR up on strong ADR growth

Thirty-one markets saw double-digit gains over the weekend, the most since the end of March, led by Madison with an 81% weekend ADR gain due to the Wisconsin-Iowa football matchup. Like with Madison, most of the 31 markets were outside the Top 25 and most hosted a college football game. 

The weekend was also lifted by a somewhat easy comp to last year’s Yom Kippur observance, which began on Friday and ended Saturday a year ago. Another contributing fact was the start of the Columbus Day holiday weekend. The holiday did not shift from last year, but based on STR’s School Break Report, this past weekend was the start of the Fall Break for 16% of all K-12 students, which will be the largest percentage of students on holiday this fall. 

A year ago, this matching Saturday was the end of the Fall Break peak. Overall, weekend RevPAR increased 5.0% with the Top 25 Markets (+5.8%) outperforming the rest of the country by 130 basis points.

Group demand gains drive Top 25 Markets

The Top 25 ADR surge on Wednesday and Thursday (+4.2%) was significant, but RevPAR over those two days increased just 1.7% with a drag from Las Vegas. Excluding Las Vegas, RevPAR on those two days was up 5.5% on a 6.8% ADR gain. 

Atlanta, Boston, New York, San Francisco, and Tampa all saw double-digit growth in ADR with Orlando (+8.0%) and Chicago (+7.7%) also seeing solid growth. Tampa posted the largest RevPAR growth on those two days due to easy comps from last year’s Hurricane Milton, which came ashore south of the city on Wednesday, 9 October and strong group demand. San Francisco also had a great week with RevPAR up 24.0% on those two days and about the same for the entire week (+24.7%) on nearly a 50% increase in Group demand. 

Group demand for the Top 25 Markets on Wednesday and Thursday was up 13.7% excluding Las Vegas, which was down. Among Upper Upscale class hotels, Group demand on Wednesday and Thursday grew 12% among the Top 25 Markets, excluding Las Vegas.

Putting it all together, RevPAR from Wednesday onwards was up 7.5% in the Top 25 Markets (excluding Las Vegas) on 6.6% ADR growth. With Las Vegas, the Top 25 was up 3.9% on a 4.0% ADR push. 

RevPAR at the start of the week for the major market group was down 3.2% on falling occupancy and flat ADR, and less so without Las Vegas. For the entire week, Top 25 RevPAR grew 1.1%. Outside of the Top 25 Markets, weekly RevPAR was flat (+0.3%) due to weakness at the beginning of the week. From Wednesday to Saturday, the measure increased 1.8% in the non-Top 25. 

With strong Group demand across the Top 25, it’s not surprising that Luxury and Upper Upscale class hotels saw the largest RevPAR gain in the week (+6.3% and +3.8%, respectively) with the gains significantly higher on Wednesday through Saturday, especially in the Top 25 Markets. All other hotel types saw RevPAR fall in the week with Economy dropping 9.1%. 

Global RevPAR rushes forward

Global RevPAR on a same-store basis showed its largest growth since the end of the first quarter, rising 14.2% on ADR (+11.3%). All the key countries and remaining regions reported RevPAR gains led by France (+43.9%) via Spring/Summer Fashion Week finale in Paris. 

India, Japan, Germany, the Middle East Africa region, Spain and Canada all saw double-digit RevPAR increases. 

While France’s strong same-store RevPAR advancement was centered in Paris (+54.4%), all but one of the remaining markets saw RevPAR growth ranging from +5.3% in Hauts-de-France to +34.8% in Provence-Alpes-CDA. The only market in arrears was Bretagne (-4.0%), which saw decreased occupancy offset a 5.0% ADR increase. Not surprising, France’s luxury hotels saw the largest weekly RevPAR increase (+66.0%) with Paris Luxury hotels increasing 73.0%.

All Japanese markets were up this week with Tokyo RevPAR advancing 23.8%. However, Osaka continued to lead the country with same-store RevPAR up 58.3% on a 41.0% increase in ADR. As seen since April, Expo 2025 drove the gains, but they should slow as Expo concluded on 13 October.  

Canadian same-store RevPAR advanced by its largest amount of the past 10 weeks (+10.9%) with half of the growth coming from ADR. Toronto and Vancouver saw RevPAR growth of 15% or more with Quebec rising 20.0%. All three saw solid increases in both occupancy and ADR. Of the larger cities, Montreal’s RevPAR was on the weaker side, but still up (+3.6%) due to flat ADR. On a total industry basis, Canadian RevPAR grew 12.8%, mostly on ADR. Like in the U.S., luxury properties led the industry in growth (+23.4%), but unlike the U.S., RevPAR in all hotel types rose.

Will we see ADR drive RevPAR next week?

The last two weeks have been a nice ADR respite, but is it sustainable? With occupancy still on the decline despite increases in other travel indicators, it seems unlikely that ADR will continue to grow at or above the rate of inflation. However, given a favorable calendar and the strength in Group demand, especially in the Top 25 Markets, ADR might exceed expectations for the month.