Analysis by Kelsey Fenerty
Ramadan, the Islamic Holy Month of fasting, prayer, reflection, and community, started the evening of Friday, 28 February and is expected to last until 29 or 30 March, depending on the lunar cycle.
The Holy Month is the slowest part of the year for most Middle East hotel markets, and travel comes to a near-halt as the pace of life slows and shifts to accommodate participants’ fasts. While Middle East hoteliers have historical trends to prepare for this slowdown, Ramadan’s annual shift on the calendar has pushed the Holy Month further into overlap with the Middle East’s high season.
Performance ahead of Ramadan
Despite the shortened high season, occupancy growth in the leadup to Ramadan did not noticeably increase. Riyadh occupancy picked up as the Saudi school holidays started, but other Middle East capitals reported no change in growth trends in the weeks ahead of the Holy Month, suggesting that there wasn’t a last-minute rush.
There was a noticeable shift in travel patterns in the days leading up to Ramadan, however. The Holy Month’s start is reliant on the sighting of the crescent moon. Tracking the lunar cycle can predict the start of Ramadan within 1-2 days, but the crescent moon might be sighted on different days in different countries, leading to staggered or uncertain start dates. As a result, travel begins to slow ahead of the expected start date.
Occupancy declines vary by market type as well. Capital markets, which are often corporate hubs and more reliant on business or government demand, tend to report larger occupancy declines during Ramadan.
Markets with a larger international or leisure demand base, such as Dubai or Abu Dhabi, tend to maintain occupancy a bit better as non-Muslims may still choose to travel to those destinations.
